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Cake day: August 16th, 2023

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  • Why are we looking to a Newsweek article about Nate’s blog, instead of the blog post directly?

    Last update: 9:30 a.m., Friday, September 20. The theme of the week remains mostly strong state polls for Kamala Harris, like this batch from Morning Consult, which helped her even though Morning Consult has consistently shown some of her better numbers.

    Indeed, today marks the 3rd time so far in the election that the streams have crossed in the forecast — Harris is technically the favorite in the model for the first time since Aug. 28 — but the race is a toss-up and that will happen a lot when the forecast is so close to 50/50.

    Source

    Note that these margins are still razor thin. Voter turnout (and related factors) will be absolutely critical to the final results.


  • No, it was absolutely a Mafia-style threat. Here is the entire article, emphasis added:

    Politico reporter Adam Wren, while reporting on potential Trump attorney general Mike Davis, was subjected to ominous threats and intimidation from an unidentified Trump ally.

    As part of his lengthy profile of Davis, Wren wrote about an experience he had writing down notes about Donald Trump Jr. telling Davis that he wanted Davis to be Trump’s next attorney general for the next four years.

    At this point, an unidentified woman accosted Wren and demanded that he hand over his phone and delete the notes he had taken.

    Wren then tried to leave the area – but was subsequently blocked from the exits by four men who similarly demanded that he hand over his phone.

    Davis tried to explain to the woman that he had to catch a flight to meet up with his family, to which she replied, “You should have thought about your kids before you did what you did.”

    “After roughly 15 minutes of this standoff, I searched for another exit,” Wren continued. “I ran down a hallway into a stairwell. Two people followed me. When I was out on the street, Davis called me. By this point, Davis had confronted the aide near the elevators and dressed her down. You don’t ask a reporter to delete their notes, he told her, according to both Davis and a second person he recounted his remarks to briefly after. This isn’t North Korea.”

    The Trump campaign subsequently investigated and claimed to Wren that the woman in question was not formally involved in Trump’s campaign.

    5 people believed that they had a right to do any of that, on any level. It had nothing to do with a flight.