Despite the good news for the Trump campaign, the polls have ebbed and flowed in this campaign.
Real Clear Politics’ polling average, which considers polls from as much as three weeks ago, shows all the swing states within the margin of error, making the race too close to call less than two months from election day.
Yeah, looking at the polls (mostly via Nate Silver’s site), I think the big blind spot in a lot of the polling is how they’re categorizing “likely voters”. Usually that’s considered much more accurate but after two presidential elections featuring uninspiring candidates (especially for the Dems), I think there’s a ton of voters who maybe didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020 but will turn out this year.
Especially in the state polls, Harris seems to have a bigger lead when looking at registered voters and I think the usual “likely voter” polls are undercounting Dem support. I certainly don’t think she has it in the bag, but in areas that underperformed for Dems in the last two presidential elections, I think a lot of this years polls are undercounting Harris’ support.